Drowning or surfing?

Some sobering thoughts from Danah Boyd on advertising, bullying, and mobile in 2007:

I love the idea of "social network fatigue." ... Users aren't going to tire of their friends but they will tire of problematic social spaces that make hanging out with friends difficult.

Now, i'm not one to enjoy spouting predictions (notice discomfort in recent press interview) but i have to say that i agree with 80% of Fred Stutzman's predictions. Social network sites as we know it are not the end-all-be-all. They will fade and other services will recognize the value in adding social features to their site. Social network structures will become as ubiquitous as search or profiles. They will be a given, either explicitly ("are you my friend?") or implicitly (your phone contact list). That said, i think there are going to be some blood baths next year and i'm not looking forward to them.

For me, the question is: "are teenagers tiring of the highly-visible social network sites?" and the answer is both yes and no. The level of emotional enthusiasm i hear has dramatically faded over the last six months. It's taken for granted that it's the way to reach people, but folks have seen the pros and cons and are no longer slurping it up without thinking. The perceived presence of people who hold power over teens (parents, teachers, etc.) and those who want to prey on them (marketers, pedophiles, etc.) has done unbelievable damage in general teen perception.

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More significantly, MySpace has turned into a massive zit full of marketing puss. Most teens don't mind advertising but when things look more like spam than advertising, you're in deep shit. Every PR organization and marketing arm is leeching onto MySpace like a blood thirsty vampire. Problem is that vampires kill their prey. Teens who wanna hang with friends are mostly protecting themselves by privatizing their profile (more cuz of the marketing predators than the sexual ones) but this quickly loses the luster, particularly when it's fundamentally hard to do what you want to communicate with your friends. (Simple things like friend management and better messaging tools would go a long way.) I'm very worried about how, unregulated, spamming and over-advertising will kill even the coolest social hangouts. I keep wondering what the regulation solution will have to be. (Is it law or code cuz it ain't gonna be market or social norms?)

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I think 2007 is going to be spent working through issues of public life and privacy mixed together complicated power dynamics between generations and between producers and consumers. We're going to see legal battles, big corporate power plays (a.k.a. "bullying"), and media panic coverage meant to distract us from Iraq. We're going to see a disgusting increase in consumer advertising that will aim to saturate everything possible. (This is what you get for getting "old media" and "old business" online finally.) Personally, when i turn up the futurism dial, i wanna hide under a rock in 2007. Of course, it shall be interesting and i won't be able to resist peeking.

Hum, whither "privacy", when kids start publishing videos of their parents fighting!? Definitely time to either abandon or re-invent that concept, I'd say: information is only going to flow more freely in 2007.

Technorati Tags: myspace, privacy, spam, teen